Pelosi no Gingrich

Michael Barone is an excellent commentator, and his skills are particularly apparent in his analysis of electoral trends. On his blog he reviews the reasons for Democratic electoral improvements in 1974 and Republican electoral improvements in 1994 as a basis for evaluating the Democrat's chances of retaking the House this Fall. Unsurprisingly, the Democrats seem unlikely to succeed, and Barone's reasoning is very sound. An excerpt:

Some comments in conclusion. Examination of the above factors leads me to conclude that 2006 is not another 1994-at least not yet. But Democrats need only 15/40ths of a 1994 to win control. As I mentioned in my column, there has been an eerie, historically unusual continuity in the House vote in the last five elections, from 1996 to 2004: Republicans have won between 49 and 51 percent of the popular vote, Democrats between 46 and 48.5 percent. That's also where you'll find the percentages in the 2004 presidential race. And the regional and demographic political contours underneath them have been remarkably steady too. If those continue to prevail, a House majority is almost surely out of reach for the Democrats.

Barone is clear that all of this could change by November, but the incompetence of the Democratic leadership seems to be the one thing we CAN count on.